New Delhi [India], November 21 (ANI): In its weekly overview for the period ending November 20, JP Morgan Chase offers an analysis of macroeconomic trends.
According to the JP Morgan report, over the past year, concerns about higher interest rates and the potential for an economic slowdown have impacted both credit availability and demand.
Despite the economy's better-than-expected performance this year, the lagged effect of monetary policy, including tighter credit conditions, is anticipated to exert a drag on growth in the coming quarters.
The Federal Reserve's third-quarter Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) is a crucial indicator highlighted by JP Morgan Chase.
It reveals a continued tightening of lending standards across various loan types and a reduction in demand. Notably, commercial real estate experiences an intensified tightening in lending standards.
Small and midsized banks witness a deceleration in annualized loan growth, dropping to under 1 per cent in the third quarter from a more robust pace earlier in the year.
The report emphasizes the impact of reduced credit availability, particularly evident in the small and midsized banking sector.
JP Morgan Chase notes that annualized loan growth for these banks has slowed significantly, marking a departure from the more robust growth seen in the first half of the year.
Following the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which indicated easing inflation relative to September, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve hike in December decreases further.
Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, shows signs of moderation, ticking down to 4.0 per cent from 4.1 per cent. Although a substantial improvement from the peak of 6.6 per cent in September 2022, it remains well above the Fed's 2 per cent long-term target.
Core goods inflation remains stable at 0 per cent year over year for the second consecutive month. Noteworthy is the relief in used vehicle prices, a key driver along with muted inflation for household furnishings and supplies.
Core services CPI, however, comes in at 5.5 per cent in October, showing a slow pace of moderation. Shelter costs, a heavily weighted category, rose a firm 6.7 per cent year over year in October, maintaining its elevated position despite seven consecutive months of improvement.
Excluding shelter costs, "super-core" services inflation stands at a more moderate 3.75 per cent in October.
The October retail sales report aligns with expectations of a downshift in consumer spending growth after a strong third quarter.
Categories experiencing reduced spending include home furnishings, appliances, and general merchandise, while there's an increased focus on experience-oriented categories like dining out and healthpersonal care.
In Washington, the report notes that a near-term government shutdown was avoided as Congress agreed to extend funding to federal agencies through early next year, providing stability in the broader economic landscape.
Equity markets exhibit resilience with another positive week, buoyed by the encouraging October CPI report and better-than-expected third-quarter earnings.
The rally over the past three weeks fully erases the August-October correction, bringing the SP 500 and Nasdaq to within a few percent of their year-to-date highs at the end of July.
Oil prices experience a modest decline over the week, reflecting better-than-expected growth in non-OPEC supply and rising concerns about potential demand softening in the first half of 2023.
The likelihood of OPEC extending existing production cuts provides some support for oil prices.
The report highlights a reversal in the dollar's late-summer rally, attributing it to the drop in treasury yields despite the strong outperformance of the US economy relative to other major currency markets.
JP Morgan Chase observes a drop in treasury yields over the past week, attributing it to the better-than-expected October CPI report.
The report suggests that this supports the case that the hiking cycle has gone far enough, and markets are beginning to anticipate rate cuts on the horizon.
After rising 100 basis points between the end of July and the end of October, ten-year treasury yields have retraced approximately half of that.
The bank maintains its view that the Federal Reserve will not hike at the December meeting and anticipates potential policy rate normalization in the second half of the following year, with a 25-basis-point cut in each of the third and fourth quarters.
JP Morgan Chase takes the opportunity to promote its corporate risk management capabilities, particularly focusing on foreign exchange (FX), interest rates, commodities, and equities.
The bank emphasizes the importance of Foreign Exchange Budgeting as a crucial aspect of a broader risk management strategy.
The report highlights the post-Labor Day period as a prime example of the fleeting nature of market access opportunities.
After a few active weeks of equity and debt issuance in September, the surge in rates and volatility in October put issuers in a "wait and see" mode.
Notably, the high-yield market printed no deals in the first week of October, a scenario not witnessed since the regional banking crisis in March.
However, November brings a more constructive backdrop to the capital markets. Falling treasury rates and rising equity markets lead to improved activity and volumes in both the debt and equity markets.
Issuers are reported to be returning to the market, capitalizing on favorable conditions.
JP Morgan Chase wraps up its weekly overview by highlighting key content and research pieces.
JP Morgan Chase's weekly overview provides a detailed and insightful analysis of macroeconomic trends, market dynamics, and key indicators, offering a resource for investors, businesses, and individuals navigating the complex financial landscape. (ANI)